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In the first quarter, 23 city house prices entered an overheating zone.

2019-5-5 14:43| 发布者: 左二爷| 查看: 207| 评论: 0|来自: 四川耍耍网www.scshua114.com

摘要: In the spring of March, the property market in some first-tier cities such as Beijing recovered, but according to statistics from April, the heat has dropped. How will "xiaoyangchun" be interprete ...
In the spring of March, the property market in some first-tier cities such as Beijing recovered, but according to statistics from April, the heat has dropped. How will "xiaoyangchun" be interpreted? During the "May 1st" long vacation, the Chinese securities king visited some real estate and intermediary agencies in Beijing to see that the enthusiasm of buyers is difficult to say.

Analysts pointed out that at present, it is too early to make a judgment on the "Xiaoyangchun" of the first-tier cities, and it is expected that the rebound in real estate sales growth in first-tier cities will continue until the middle of the year. The overall transaction performance of second-tier cities will improve, and the pressure on third-tier cities to return. The divisions between cities will also continue to increase. In the future, prices are rising too fast and urban regulation is more likely to tighten.
Is the first-tier city "xiaoyangchun" still there?
On the morning of the 4th, China Securities Jun came to a commercial property sales office in the South Fourth Ring Road. There were 4 groups of customers looking at the house. The property, which opened last year and is scheduled for liquidation this month, leaves dozens of homes unsold, far short of being sold out in the first two years. In order to promote sales, the property during the May 1st period also gave a concession. "By the end of May, 40 % of the down payment will be paid, with a 1 % discount. "The sales office staff introduced to China Securities.
In another sales office near the property, dozens of commercial houses that opened last year are still open for sale. The latest phase of the property has not yet been opened. The sales office has given a discount of "1.5 million deposits in advance and 1 % discount". The sales office staff advised the 2 groups of customers who are looking at the house.
In April, the average price increase in homes in the top 10 cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, narrowed by 0.04 percentage points from March, according to a report on the mid-April price index.
Zhangdawei, chief analyst of zhongyuan real estate, pointed out that some areas of the real estate market, led by the "xiaoyangchun" housing recovery, but a lot of potential demand turned to wait and see, resulting in weak volume growth.
Zhangbo, chief analyst at the research institute for home ownership, told China securities agency that April's home-buyer confidence index fell for the first time this year, down 2.4 % on the previous month. The broker confidence index held up slightly, up 0.9 %.
In terms of second-hand housing, Zhangbo pointed out that from the perspective of the price of the 67-city second-hand housing listed on the Internet, which is monitored by the residents, the overall price of second-hand housing in Beijing has risen by 0.16 %, and the price of second-hand housing in Beijing has declined slightly in April, from 60,529 yuan per square meter to 59968 yuan per square meter. Shanghai has experienced a slight increase. From 49,547 yuan per square meter to 49,576 yuan per square meter, house prices in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have also maintained a slight rise and fall under stable conditions.
鈥淚n recent days, there have been few deals or consultations, 鈥?a Beijing agency's second-hand home salesperson told China Securities. "
At the same time, data released by the Shell Research Institute on April 29 showed that according to the performance of the second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, the market did not continue the heat of "Xiaoyangchun" in April. April, The agency chain of second-hand housing real time transaction volume 20 % -30 % of the ring than the decline. Previously, the property market rebound was more obvious in Beijing's second-hand housing market in April, a decline of 34 % from March.
However, some industry insiders believe that it is too early to make a judgment of the first-tier city "Xiaoyangchun".
Zhangbo said that from the performance of the 58 Anjou line, the heat of the first-tier city "Xiaoyangchun" continues. In April, the heat in the first-tier cities fell by 0.5 %. In terms of cities, the heat in Beijing and Shanghai continued to heat up, both exceeded 2 %, and Guangzhou showed a certain degree of decline. Shenzhen remained relatively stable. It is expected that the heat of the first-tier cities will maintain a small shock, slightly rising pattern, a second-hand housing volume is expected to be better than the same period last year, housing prices remain relatively stable.
Xu xiaole, chief market analyst at the shell research institute, believes that the market for second-hand housing in Beijing is not turning cold, and the decline in sales of second-hand housing in Beijing in April was a spontaneous fall after a concentrated release in March. At present, it is still the main force of the transaction, and the chain of improved demand has not yet really started.
On the whole, Tianfeng Securities(8.500, -0.02, -0.23 %) believes that the first-tier cities have long and strong regulation times. Since 2019, under the influence of the decline in mortgage interest rates, long-term suppressed rigid demand has been accelerated and sales growth has been rapidly released. rebound. With reference to historical rules, combined with the judgment of monetary policy, it is expected that the rebound in real estate sales growth in first-tier cities can continue for about a quarter to mid-year.
The second line city heat will increase the three-fourth line will be differentiated pattern
Zhangbo said to China Securities Jun, the rise in the property market heat in the second-tier city performance is obvious, the overall turnover of second-tier cities will continue to increase to become a major trend. Third-and fourth-tier cities face a pattern of differentiation.
Looking forward to the city, the research also believes that the overall transaction of the second-tier city is expected to remain stable, the transaction performance will improve. Among them, it is worth noting that it is a core city in each metropolitan area. The agency lists the star cities that may be better in the short term and is roughly divided into the following categories:
First, some cities in the Yangtze River Delta, such as Nanjing, Hangzhou, Hefei, Suzhou and Ningbo, have undergone adjustments in 2018. The market has gradually returned to rationality and supply has gradually been released, which has a certain stimulating effect on the transaction. Sales in these cities are expected to pick up slightly.
Second, the Pearl river delta core secondary city, the earth market heat remains high, high premium land frequent, cost drive to enhance the expectations of buyers to the post-market, the market rebound is also expected.
Finally, central cities such as Chongqing, Wuhan, Chengdu, Xian, Zhengzhou and other cities have a large population base and complete urban infrastructure. In the short term, market demand is still strong and the heat will continue for some time. But Shenyang, Dalian, JiNan and other Bohai ring cities due to low transaction, inventory pressure is relatively large, the later trend is not optimistic.
In addition, the clairi property research said that the pressure on the third and fourth tier cities to return, the differentiation between the cities will continue to increase.
Institution: 23 city house prices in the first quarter entered the "overheated" range
Second quarter regulation tightening is more likely
On April 25, Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute issued the "China Baicheng House Prices Report" for the first quarter. According to the report, the average transaction price of new residential goods in 100 cities monitored by the Yiju Research Institute was 13,685 yuan per square meter in the first quarter, an increase of 13.1 % over the previous year, compared with the 12.0 % increase in January and February.
Observing historical data, starting in the second half of 2018, the cumulative increase in housing prices at the beginning of the 100 cities in the country continued to expand. The gains, which should have narrowed slightly in February, are related to the holiday effect. By March the gains will have widened. In particular, the March real estate transaction market is still good, the market expectations have adjusted, which also made Baicheng house prices continue to expand year-on-year.
The report classifies the average transaction price of new commercial housing in 100 cities at the beginning of the year as a year-on-year increase, dividing it into five sections: overheated, overheated, reasonable, cold and overcooled.
Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2019, 23 of 100 cities entered the "overheated" range, of which Zhongshan's house prices rose the most, reaching 61 %. At the same time, five cities have entered the "overcooled house prices" range, including Zhaoqing, Langfang, Putian, Quanzhou and Sanya. The report pointed out that objectively, there are many reasons for the overcooling of house prices, such as the excessive concentration of transaction items in suburban markets and the continuous decline in market transactions.
The report judged that the possibility of overheated housing prices in cities is increasing. Recently, regulators have re-emphasized the positioning requirement that "houses are used for living, not for frying." That could mean tighter regulation in parts of the city where house prices rose too fast in the second quarter.
Yanyuejin, director of research at the center for think tanks at the Institute of change, said tightening controls had recently been introduced in some cities. For example, Xi'an tightened reserve fund extraction requirements, Suzhou land auction set a limit price. Subsequent similar measures are expected to increase, including reordering property transactions.

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